# Test 2: S-I Regime Contingency — Does Monetary Union Switch the Active Margin?

| DV | Spec | Z₁ (base) |  | Z₁×EMU |  | Z₁×CFA |  | N | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Savings/GDP | Base | -277.560*** | (13.699) |  |  |  |  | 5512 | 0.240 |
| Gross Savings/GDP | +EMU | -285.133*** | (13.851) | 80.147 | (56.478) |  |  | 5512 | 0.243 |
| Gross Savings/GDP | +CFA | -342.765*** | (15.193) |  |  | 316.229*** | (58.768) | 5512 | 0.260 |
| Gross Savings/GDP | Joint | -355.669*** | (15.390) | 83.614 | (55.959) | 325.954*** | (58.574) | 5512 | 0.264 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Gross Investment/GDP | Base | 158.618*** | (7.585) |  |  |  |  | 5557 | 0.162 |
| Gross Investment/GDP | +EMU | 161.159*** | (7.706) | -58.359 | (41.652) |  |  | 5557 | 0.163 |
| Gross Investment/GDP | +CFA | 181.546*** | (8.584) |  |  | 166.678*** | (34.186) | 5557 | 0.150 |
| Gross Investment/GDP | Joint | 185.034*** | (8.741) | -48.614 | (41.147) | 163.387*** | (34.129) | 5557 | 0.153 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| S-I Gap | Base | -469.354*** | (17.313) |  |  |  |  | 5457 | 0.157 |
| S-I Gap | +EMU | -481.632*** | (17.506) | 145.904* | (76.325) |  |  | 5457 | 0.161 |
| S-I Gap | +CFA | -558.406*** | (19.398) |  |  | 112.465 | (73.917) | 5457 | 0.187 |
| S-I Gap | Joint | -578.804*** | (19.656) | 139.310* | (75.160) | 129.967* | (73.450) | 5457 | 0.195 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

*Notes: PanelGLS with country and year FE. Paper 1 found neither S nor I alone significant (co-determination). Phase 12 found investment dominates within EMU. If Z₁×EMU activates the investment margin specifically, monetary union forces demographic adjustment onto investment.*
*Controls: fiscal balance, lagged NFA, growth, relative productivity, KAOPEN.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*
